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US election polls tracker 2020: Will Donald Trump or Joe Biden win the race to be president?

Joe Biden and Donald Trump will go head to head for the White House on November 3, with polls showing the Democrat has a solid lead

US election polls live tracker 2020 who will win Donald Trump or Joe Biden president america latest presidential race odds

Who will win 2020 presidency? Follow our live US election polls tracker


Democratic challenger Joe Biden is currently leading Donald Trump in the national polls as the US approaches its 2020 presidential election.

The 10-poll average indicates that just over half of Americans intend to back Joe Biden while Mr Trump’s support trails this by around seven or eight points.

Americans will vote on Tuesday, November 3, in order to elect their next president, either giving Mr Trump another four years or handing over the keys to the White House to Mr Biden.

Mr Trump triumphed in 2016 despite losing the popular vote, and pollsters misjudged the size of his support, so despite Mr Biden’s lead it is still difficult to predict who will win the keys to the White House

Who is in the lead for president 2021? 

According to the latest polling averages, Joe Biden’s lead over the incumbent is remaining solid, despite a slight downfall in the wake of the US presidential debates and Donald Trump’s diagnosis with coronavirus.

Mr Biden’s polling average has remained above 50 per cent since October 4, and the Democratic nominee has consistently polled in the lead since the race began.


If state polls are close to the final result, it suggests Mr Biden is on course for gains in at least two swing states – Michigan and Wisconsin – and Arizona, which has been more likely to vote Republican in recent years.

While Florida and Texas are too close to call – carrying 67 electoral college votes between them – Pennsylvania and its 20 votes for the presidency are leaning Democrat according to the latest polls.


Of the states that could go either way based on the latest polls, Iowa, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida all flipped to Donald Trump from the Democrats in the 2016 election, and his chances of retaining the presidency could rest on reclaiming victory here and holding on to Texas.

Having voted Republican in every election since 2000, Texas is now a toss-up and could be pivotal to the final result.


What are the latest odds on winning?

Joe Biden remains the favourite in the next US president betting as he and President Trump enter the all-important last week of campaigning ahead of the Nov 3 vote.

UK bookmakers appear to be setting out their stall to take on Mr Trump by making the present POTUS the subject of their enhanced-odds sign-up offers.

After shortening following the final head-to-head debate, Mr Trump’s US election odds have stagnated, with Biden still the odds-on favourite.

These are the latest odds from the bookmaker William Hill. 

Read more: What time will we get the US election results?

Trump and Biden clash in debates

Donald Trump and Joe Biden faced each other in the first presidential debate in September.

In a bad-tempered and at times chaotic debate, the candidates ripped chunks out of each other on their records and issues such as the economy and race.

Mr Trump was rebuked several times by Chris Wallace, the moderator, for speaking over his opponent. At one point, after incessant interruptions from the president, Mr Biden said: “Will you shut up, man?”


Tempers were much more controlled at the second debate in Nashville, in which insults flew but neither candidate could land a killer blow.

The pair had their microphones turned off at the final presidential debate on Thursday 22 October to stop them talking over each other. The Commission on Presidential Debates (CPD) enforced two minutes of uninterrupted speaking time for each candidate per topic after the first debate between rivals became a farce.

Read more: Who won the second debate?

Presidential debates are a political version of gladiatorial combat and they have, in the past, turned elections.

Four years ago the polls showed it was reasonably close between Mr Trump and Hillary Clinton with neither delivering a knockout blow.

Meanwhile both Mr Trump’s and Mr Biden’s running mates – Mike Pence and Senator Kamala Harris – clashed in their own vice-presidential debate on Wednesday 7 October, with the focus dominated by the Trump administration’s Covid-19 response. 

Read more: Vice-presidential debate analysis

What happened in the town halls?

After the second presidential debate was cancelled, the two candidates appeared in separate live town halls that were broadcast at the same time.

Mr Trump dominated the headlines after he refused to denounce the QAnon conspiracy theory, which falsely claims the US government is controlled by a “deep state” cabal of anti-Trump Satanist paedophiles. He said: “So, I know nothing about QAnon. I know very little. What I do hear about it, they are very strongly against paedophilia. I do agree with that.”

The president was questioned over his decision to retweet a false conspiracy theory, from a QAnon-linked Twitter account, suggesting that Navy Seals killed a body double of Osama bin Laden, and that the Obama administration covered it up. Mr Trump said he was just “putting it out there” and “people can decide for themselves”.

Mr Trump also denied that he was told in the Oval Office, by his national security adviser in January, that the coronavirus would be the biggest national security threat of his presidency.

In Philadelphia, Mr Biden said: “We’re in a situation where we have 210,000 plus people dead and what’s he doing? Nothing. He’s still not wearing masks.”

Mr Biden put on his mask when leaving the stage to be closer to questioners.


Trump approval static at around 40 per cent

Donald Trump’s presidential approval ratings are at steady levels, according to the Telegraph’s poll tracker.

The tracker, which takes an average of the last eight polls, put Mr Trump’s approval rating at around 44 per cent, while 54 per cent disapprove of the way the president is doing his job.

The president’s approval ratings had recovered slightly recently, after experiencing a “rally around the flag” effect with Americans backing the Government to handle the coronavirus crisis.

The period since Donald Trump’s election has been packed with controversy and intrigue but, underneath it all, few people seem to have really changed their minds about America’s 45th president.

Read more: What are key swing states, and why are they so important?


His approval rating quickly slumped in the chaotic days after assuming office, with Trump achieving a majority disapproval rating in a record of just eight days. Three years in, he is far less popular than previous presidents at this stage of a presidency – but overall approval has generally remained above 40 per cent.

Still, with the president having defied political gravity four years ago, the jury’s out as to whether he can do the same again against his new Democrat opponent.

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